ThreatWeb

882 
WTNT33 KNHC 050234
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary tonight.  A slow motion 
towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast 
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression 
is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday 
morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is 
forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy 
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas 
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with 
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an 
elevated risk for flash flooding. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National 
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north 
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

313 
FXUS61 KCLE 071743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push south across the region today
before stalling in the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday as high
pressure briefly builds southward into the Great Lakes. The
front will lift back into the region Wednesday and will then
oscillate slightly through the weekend. A stronger system may
finally push the front out by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:35 AM EDT Update...

Virtually all of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in
obs and model guidance. Only change was to the surface wind
direction forecast through this early afternoon since recent
surface obs indicate the cold front is moving SE'ward more
slowly than our forecast. Still expect the surface cold front to
sweep SE'ward through the rest of our CWA by about 6 PM EDT this
evening. As of 9:35 AM EDT, the surface cold front appeared to
be located just east and south of Toronto and extended SW'ward
to just east and south of Toledo and Van Wert, respectively. 
Still expect additional multicell showers/thunderstorms to 
blossom along and ahead of the surface cold front through this 
early evening amidst weak to moderate boundary layer instability
and moderate effective bulk shear in the warm/moist sector. Also 
expect isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for 
several hours behind the surface cold front passage, as low-level 
convergence and moist ascent along the upper-reaches of the front 
release weak elevated CAPE amidst moderate effective bulk shear. 
Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

The focus of the near term will be the cold frontal passage
expected today and the associated showers and thunderstorms. The
main message is that confidence has increased for higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this morning through
the afternoon, especially for inland portions of NE Ohio and NW
PA in the 15-19Z time range, but exact locations remain 
somewhat uncertain.

Early this morning, the cold front was oriented over Lake Erie
and extended southwest through southern parts of Indiana and
Illinois in a quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern. A few showers
were lingering near the front over Lake Erie and the adjacent 
lakeshore areas, but these have struggled to hold together given
the diurnal minimum and synoptic support still well to the 
north and west. A weak mid/upper shortwave trough seen on 
Infrared satellite and water vapor imagery was progressing 
across the corn belt. This shortwave will help to slowly push 
the front southeastward through the region later this morning 
through the afternoon as it lifts through the central Great 
Lakes, but the strongest mid-level flow and associated synoptic
support will be displaced to the north with the deamplifying 
shortwave. This points to convection developing along and ahead 
of the cold front (and any outflow boundaries) today where low- 
level convergence interacts with building instability, but there
will not be a lot of mid- level flow for convection to tap 
into, so slow moving convection with locally heavy rainfall will
be the main impact late this morning through the afternoon. 
After collaboration with WPC, a slight risk ERO was introduced 
for portions of eastern Ohio and NW PA surrounded by the ongoing
marginal risk given the growing confidence for slow moving 
convection with efficient rainfall rates. The sparse coverage of
showers early this morning will allow for fairly strong heating
through the morning. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE reaching
1000-1500 J/Kg by 16Z with little to no capping, so expect
convection to start to fire after 15Z as stated above. PWATs of
1.75 to 1.95 inches will be in the 90th percentile of daily
climatology, and this along with the overall weak mid-level
flow, deep warm cloud layers, and deep layer flow mostly
parallel to the front will support slowly moving convection with
locally very heavy rainfall, as well as potential training. As
stated above, exact locations remain uncertain, but consensus
among CAMS is for a lot of coverage in inland portions of NE 
Ohio and NW PA between 15 and 19Z, so increased PoPs to likely
and categorical in these areas. The rest of the area will see
passing showers and thunderstorms too, but a lower risk compared
to inland NE Ohio and NW PA since the front should clear NW Ohio
and the lakeshore areas fairly early this morning (before the
new convection fires).

Localized severe weather remains a secondary concern. NE Ohio
and NW PA remain in a marginal risk in the SWODY1 from the SPC,
and this is reasonable with the aforementioned instability and 
the frontal passage. The biggest limiting factor will be the
weak mid-level flow which results in deep layer shear under 30
knots and low-level shear under 10 knots, so organized severe
weather is not expected. However, localized downburst winds are
possible from precip loading, especially where higher daytime
heating maximizes low-level lapse rates.

Convection will gradually exit to the south and east of the
region this evening and early tonight as the front settles to
the south. Weak surface high pressure sliding south into the
Great Lakes behind the front late tonight and Tuesday will keep
most of the area dry, however, kept some slight chance PoPs from
the NBM near US 30 and points south through Tuesday given the
front nearby.

Temperatures will remain very warm and humid today, with highs
in the low/mid 80s expected. Slightly cooler Tuesday, with 
mainly low 80s. Lows tonight will be more comfortable, with 
low/mid 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal boundary from earlier in the week will be the main
driver to the weather through late week as it slowly lifts back
north Tuesday night and Wednesday in response to a distinct
mid/upper shortwave trough progressing through the northern and
central Great Lakes. The best forcing looks to again be
displaced to the north, but NBM slight chance to chance PoPs
look good for Wednesday as higher low-level moisture and
instability begin to shift back northward coincident with
daytime heating. This should yield widely scattered convection.
Confidence in the placement of the front decreases Wednesday
night through Thursday night. In one respect, the front should
sink back southward behind the shortwave Wednesday night, but
even if it does, it may creep back northward Thursday and
Thursday night ahead of another upstream mid/upper shortwave
approaching the northern Plains. Kept NBM slight chance to
chance PoPs through Thursday night, which places the highest 
coverage with daytime heating Thursday, but confidence is low
given the uncertainty on frontal placement. 

High temperatures will generally stay in the mid 80s Wednesday
and Thursday, with lows in the low/mid 60s Tuesday night
gradually climbing into mostly mid/upper 60s Wednesday and
Thursday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow will persist for the end of the week and
through the weekend, which will essentially keep the frontal
boundary quasi-stationary over or near the region. This will
maintain difficult to time showers and thunderstorms at times 
as weak shortwaves ripple through the flow and interact with the
boundary, but there will be plenty of dry time and no wash 
outs. Kept NBM temperatures and PoPs given uncertainty with the 
placement of the boundary, so the main message is seasonably 
warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms at times through the weekend. The aforementioned 
shortwave trough in the northern Plains may finally kick the 
front out of the region by Monday, and this could bring the next
potential for more of an organized round of convection 
depending on timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A cold front will continue to track across the area this 
afternoon into this evening before slowing over the Ohio Valley 
tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have 
developed ahead of and along the front and will likely impact 
terminals generally east of KTOL/KFDY through early evening. 
Confidence is somewhat lower at KCLE since the front appears to 
be south of the terminal, but latest radar trends suggest that a
cluster of thunderstorms over NW OH may clip or move just to 
the south of the terminal within the first couple of hours of 
the TAF period. Any showers/storms will likely remain to the 
south of KERI for the remainder of today. Ceilings are generally
VFR with pockets of MVFR/IFR and expect this to continue 
through the rest of the afternoon. Any showers/thunderstorms 
that move directly over terminals could produce brief periods of
IFR conditions and possibly variable/gusty winds in any 
stronger storms that manage to develop. Behind the front this 
evening into tonight, MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings are expected
areawide with MVFR/IFR conditions likely developing in fog/low 
stratus early Tuesday morning. There's some potential for LIFR 
conditions at terminals that end up receiving heavy rainfall so 
will need to continue to monitor forecast trends. Nearly all 
terminals will likely experience fog and low stratus for at 
least a brief period, however the vast majority of guidance 
favors more optimistic VFR conditions at KCLE during this 
timeframe. Any fog/lower stratus should generally improve to VFR
as diurnal mixing develops after 12Z Tuesday.

Winds ahead of the front will be out of the west before becoming
more northerly by this evening. Flow will become light and
variable overnight with winds along the immediate lakeshore
likely remaining northerly at around 5 knots through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday, best chance during 
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds to around 10 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet in 
nearshore zones are expected as a cold front pushes south of 
Lake Erie this afternoon and tonight. Winds will likely become 
more light and variable by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure 
builds into the region and expect similar flow with sustained 
winds under 10 knots through Wednesday. Flow will become more 
east/southeasterly Thursday and Friday, but winds will remain 
below 10 knots. Lake breezes may result in periods of onshore 
flow and possibly a bit of choppiness in nearshore zones during 
the afternoon Tuesday through the end of the week.

Marine conditions will remain relatively calm over the next
several days, although afternoon showers and thunderstorms are 
possible Wednesday through Saturday. Winds/waves may be higher 
in thunderstorms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15

346 
CDUS43 KIND 070533
CLILAF

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
133 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2025

...................................

...THE LAFAYETTE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 6 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                  
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE  FROM      YEAR                 
                                      NORMAL                       
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         92    413 PM  84      8       83                   
  MINIMUM         71    413 AM  63      8       61                   
  AVERAGE         82            74      8       72                 

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.16          0.15   0.01     0.00                 
  MONTH TO DATE    0.16          0.91  -0.75     0.33                 
  SINCE JUN 1      7.19          5.47   1.72     2.88                 
  SINCE JAN 1     18.68         20.05  -1.37    21.10                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0             0      0        0                    
  MONTH TO DATE    0             0      0        2                    
  SINCE JUN 1     10            24    -14       18                    
  SINCE JUL 1      0             0      0        2                    

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       17             9      8        7                    
  MONTH TO DATE   75            53     22       41                    
  SINCE JUN 1    358           246    112      293                    
  SINCE JAN 1    409           320     89      385                    
.......................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    17   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (230)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    28   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.0                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    94           900 PM                                      
 LOWEST     51           400 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    73                                                        

..........................................................


THE LAFAYETTE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   84        MM        MM                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   64        MM        MM                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JULY  7 2025..........SUNRISE   625 AM EDT   SUNSET   920 PM EDT     
JULY  8 2025..........SUNRISE   626 AM EDT   SUNSET   920 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

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025 
FXUS61 KILN 062305
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
705 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will approach the region this evening, and move 
across the area Monday into Monday evening. This till bring a renewed
chance of showers and some thunderstorms.  The front will stall near
the Ohio River and then dissipate into midweek, keeping periodic
chances of showers/storms through the first part of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As mentioned in previous discussions, seeing some widely scattered
showers/storms in the narrow plume of a southern origin moisture
stream and mid level forcing. Keeping slight chance of showers/storms
generally east of I-70 and south of I-70 with a diurnal focus. Winds
getting a little gusty to 20kts ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary across the northwest forecast area, with expectation that
prefrontal convection to diminish a bit as it enters the forecast
area through the late afternoon and into the early evening. As the
frontal boundary will extend from northern Ohio into central Indiana
overnight, continue to keep mention of widely scattered showers with
a possible rumble of thunder overnight closer to the boundary across
the north. Overnight lows again in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With the weakening mid level shortwave and associated frontal
boundary sagging south into the area on Monday, expecting diurnally 
enhanced showers and thunderstorms to develop near and south of the 
boundary, with the greatest coverage generally along and south of 
the I-70 corridor. Deepening moisture will pool ahead of the frontal 
boundary, with PW values approaching 1.9, or above the 90th 
percentile for early June. This combined with relatively slow storm 
motion and 0-6km shear at less than 15 kts will warrant a mention of 
heavy rain and a potential for isolated localized flooding across 
especially the south. As with the shear, other severe parameters 
remain weak, but can't rule out strong winds associated with a 
downdraft or outflow boundary interaction. The greater concern will 
be pockets of heavy rain in slow moving storms. 

Expect diminished shower/storm coverage Monday night, but still a
slight change across the southern forecast area. Overnight lows in
the upper 60s. 

With increasing clouds at peak heating, not overly confident in heat
index values reaching 100, though will still mention this potential
across the south as well. Highs in the mid 80s north of the boundary,
with near 90 to lower 90s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After the cold front moves across much of the area on Monday, 
confidence is fairly high that the better moisture will placed over 
the southern most locations (northern Kentucky & southern Ohio) of 
the area. These areas should expect scattered downpours and 
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, more 
isolated showers/downpours are forecast. Given the high moisture 
(PWATs >1.8") content across the south, locally heavy rainfall 
leading to isolated flash flooding remains possible. 

There is the possibility of a reprieve from the more rich moisture 
on Wednesday due to the lingering air mass behind the front, 
however, the area will not see dry conditions. Another weak 
shortwave is expected to move into the region, driving downpours and 
thunderstorms once again. Depending on the strength of the 
shortwave, there is some potential that the more rich moisture will 
make a faster return, especially for Wednesday evening. So while WPC 
currently doesn't have a mention for locally heavy rainfall in the 
DAY 4 outlook (WED) for the local area, this could change depending 
on how the pattern trends. 

For Thursday, uncertainty increases as the GEFS/ECMWF ENS diverge on 
the pattern evolution. Since the ECMWF ENS are weaker with the 
trough, the dryness on Wednesday leads to a wetter solution on 
Thursday when compared to the GEFS. Overall, the big picture remains 
the same as far as the forecast goes. There will likely be more 
downpours/thunderstorms on Thursday, with the details on locally 
heavy rainfall risks likely delayed until the day gets closer.  

While there will still be a weak system that lingers in the area 
Friday, the primary feature to watch will be a stronger trough 
moving into the northern Plains Friday and eventually into the Great 
Lakes Saturday. This would present the opportunity for a more 
strongly forced system for next weekend. 

Given the clouds and rainfall in the forecast, temperatures are 
expected to be near to slightly above normal throughout the entire 
extended. Some days may be a few degrees cooler than currently 
forecast depending on the amount of lingering cloud cover from the 
previous day's convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW/SCT VFR Cu will decrease in coverage early in the period, 
although some may linger through the night, particularly for wrn 
sites of KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. Otherwise, dry conditions are favored, with 
a very spotty SHRA possible at wrn sites into the overnight as 
decaying storm activity from the W works into the local area. The 
main concern for the TAF period is the expectation for SCT to 
numerous TSRA to develop past 15z, with greatest coverage favored 
near/E of I-71. This should be maximized during peak diurnal heating 
-- approximately 16z-22z before coverage wanes toward 00z Tuesday. Of
course, brief/sudden reductions in VSBYs and wind speed/direction 
will be the primary concern with the heaviest activity, but this will
be handled with amendments as needed. 

Some BR/MVFR VSBYs may develop once again at KLUK in the several
hours prior/near daybreak, but VFR conditions are favored otherwise.
Cu development will be quick by 15z, with storm initiation not far
afterwards. Light SW winds at 5kts or less will be maintained
overnight before increasing to around 10kts past 15z once again.
Winds will go more out of the WNW with the approach of the weak front
late in the period. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low stratus or BR/FG are 
possible early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in
the afternoon and evening, Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC

525 
WWUS71 KBOX 051900
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

CTZ002>004-MAZ003>007-010>019-026-RIZ001>004-060930-
/O.CON.KBOX.HT.Y.0003.250706T1100Z-250708T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern
Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex
MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern
Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern
Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Including the cities of Windsor Locks, Foxborough, Providence,
Quincy, East Greenwich, Lowell, Greenfield, Taunton, Lawrence,
Warwick, Foster, Fitchburg, Willimantic, Barre, Worcester,
Plymouth, Ayer, Orange, Framingham, Boston, Union, Springfield,
Norwood, West Warwick, Amherst, Brockton, Northampton, Vernon,
Milford, Cambridge, Smithfield, West Greenwich, Gloucester,
Coventry, Hartford, and Putnam
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values between 95 and 100 expected. Highest heat 
  indices on Monday.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern, southeastern, and western Massachusetts, and 
  northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of 
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/box

Belk

398 
WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.
 
The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt.  During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.  A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land.  While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.
 
The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces.  Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 30.8N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven