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2
« on: Today at 05:08:16 PM »
MOB expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Choctaw [AL]777 WWUS54 KMOB 130125 SVSMOB
Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mobile AL 725 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
ALC023-130135- /O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250213T0130Z/ Choctaw AL- 725 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CST...
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southwestern Alabama.
LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3228 8794 3230 8794 3230 8800 3228 8801 3228 8802 3226 8801 3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804 3211 8805 3208 8804 3198 8846 3231 8842 TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 246DEG 52KT 3241 8784
$$
MM
Source: MOB expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Choctaw [AL]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
« on: Today at 05:08:16 PM »
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:00 AM EST273 FXUS61 KPBZ 130500 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1200 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Freezing rain chances will diminish before dawn Thursday. Rain will change to snow late Thursday morning before ending Thursday evening. Dry weather is expected Friday, before active weather returns over the weekend with strong low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Freezing rain threat expected to end before dawn amid rising temperature - Isolated heavy snow showers possible late Thursday; the evening rush hour may be impacted
-----------------------------------------------------------------
11:45PM Update:
The center of low pressure system currently resides in western Ohio this evening. With south/southeast flow, warm air continues to advance into the region and temperatures have climbed into the 40s/mid-30s for a large portion of the area. However, along the ridges and near I-80, the threat for freezing surface temperatures remains for the next 6 hours and icy conditions may continue along roadways and along elevated surfaces. Counties will likely be trimmed from west to east from the Advisory as surface winds shift from the southwest.
A dry slot, noted on GOES-16 low-lvl water vapor, is currently advancing into eastern Ohio. Reflectivity returns will likely be scattered to isolated for the next few hours.
With the passing cold front expected late morning, the warmest time period for Thursday will likely be between 4am to 6am opposed to late afternoon.
In the wake of the cold front, expected an uptick in snow shower/snow band activity between 4pm to 7pm from the west with a passing shortwave. Hi-Res models depict reflectivity returns of 20DBZ to 30DBZ with snow bands which could create hazardous travel and visibility concerns. The snow squall parameters is also maximized between 20Z Thurs to 00Z Friday over western PA due to steep lapse rates and instability values between 40J/kg to 75J/kg. Short-fused Special Weather Statements (SPS) or Snow Squall Warnings may be needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry Friday - Wintry precipitation returns Friday night and Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry weather is expected Friday as the high moves east across the region. The next shortwave trough is expected to track east out of the western CONUS Friday night, as a surface low develops across the southern Plains. Wintry precipitation is expected to overspread the region late Friday night into Saturday in warm, moist advection in SW flow ahead of the low/trough, and with a crossing surface warm front. Some jet enhancement should also increase ascent during the day Saturday.
Model soundings and critical thicknesses indicate the precip should begin as snow, with a changeover to rain from S-N under the warm advection. At this time, it appears most of the snow accumulation should be north of PIT, with near advisory levels possible near and north of I 80. Most areas should transition to rain through the afternoon. Locally heavy rain will then be possible, especially south of PIT, beginning later in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain continues Saturday night into Sunday - Locally heavy rain possible - Rain changing to snow Sunday - Much colder late Sunday and Monday -------------------------------------------------------------------
The surface low mentioned above is progged to take a similar track to tonight's/Thursday's system, reaching eastern Ohio/Western PA Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the region after the low tracks further northeastward, with rain changing to snow after FROPA. Locally heavy rain Saturday night and Sunday morning could result in localized flooding. Elevated river and stream levels are also possible.
An upper trough is then progged to approach and cross the region late Sunday and Sunday night, with snow chances continuing. Cold NW flow across the Great Lakes should maintain some snow showers across the region on Monday, before high pressure returns dry weather for Tuesday. Another shortwave trough is progged to advance our of the central CONUS by midweek, returning snow chances to the region.
Much colder temperatures are expected Sunday night into Tuesday, as 850mb temps are progged to drop to -20 to -22 deg C.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain showers have become more widespread over the past few hours, although visibilities are still mainly VFR. The freezing rain threat is now confined to locations north of I-80 and along the higher ridges, and have TAF mention at only FKL and DUJ through 03Z or so, before warmer air arrives.
Still expect a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet to arrive later this evening, with a threat of low-level wind shear where surface wind decouples and prevents gusting at the surface. Ceilings are forecast to float down to IFR levels areawide as the low levels saturate underneath a lowering inversion. HREF probabilities of such are 50 to 90 percent areawide by 12Z. A cold front arrives in eastern Ohio after 09Z and swings through during the morning. This will bring gusty westerly winds, an end to widespread precipitation, and a gradual improvement in ceilings.
After 18Z, ceilings will remain at MVFR, with wind gusts of 30 to 30 knots continuing out of the west. There is some risk of scattered snow showers that could bring brief visibility impacts especially after 21Z. Used VCSH for this threat for now as timing/placement of said snow showers remains low confidence.
Outlook... High pressure will promote a brief period of VFR Friday (near 100% probability) before the next low pressure system brings multiple rounds of a wintry mix of conditions plus restrictions Saturday into early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for PAZ007>009- 015-016-074-076>078. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for WVZ512. Ice Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...CL
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:00 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
« on: Today at 05:08:15 PM »
ERIE PA Feb 12 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 19 Precip: 0.11" Snow: 0.3" Snow Depth: Trace985 CDUS41 KCLE 130530 CLIERI
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 1230 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
...................................
...THE ERIE PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 12 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 38 1145 PM 69 1999 36 2 37 MINIMUM 19 438 AM -10 1917 21 -2 28 AVERAGE 29 28 1 33
PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.64 1.04 -0.40 0.09 SINCE DEC 1 8.07 8.62 -0.55 7.44 SINCE JAN 1 3.99 4.45 -0.46 4.17
SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.3 0.7 -0.4 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 2.2 9.0 -6.8 T SINCE DEC 1 59.3 67.1 -7.8 16.1 SINCE JUL 1 96.5 76.8 19.7 21.5 SNOW DEPTH T
DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 36 37 -1 32 MONTH TO DATE 455 448 7 329 SINCE DEC 1 2629 2545 84 1883 SINCE JUL 1 3418 3629 -211 2883
COOLING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0 ...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 31 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SE (150) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 45 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (160) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 12.2
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. LIGHT RAIN LIGHT SNOW FOG HAZE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 92 400 PM LOWEST 71 1200 PM AVERAGE 82
..........................................................
THE ERIE PA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 63 1990 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 21 -10 1914
SUNRISE AND SUNSET FEBRUARY 13 2025......SUNRISE 719 AM EST SUNSET 551 PM EST FEBRUARY 14 2025......SUNRISE 718 AM EST SUNSET 553 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: ERIE PA Feb 12 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 19 Precip: 0.11" Snow: 0.3" Snow Depth: Trace--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
5
« on: Today at 05:08:15 PM »
IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Feb 10, 2:36 PM EST ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...572 FLUS43 KIWX 101936 AAA HWOIWX
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Northern Indiana 236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
INZ103-104-203-204-MIZ078-177-277-111945- Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Southern La Porte- Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien- 236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 /136 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Winter Storm Watch.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
INZ005>009-012>015-017-020-022>024-116-216-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002- 111945- Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Northern Kosciusko- Southern Kosciusko-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH- 236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 /136 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
A period of accumulating snow, mixed with freezing rain and sleet, is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Difficult travel conditions will be possible, especially during the Wednesday afternoon and evening commute.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
LMZ043-046-111945- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Conditions hazardous to small craft are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday evening, and then again Saturday night into Sunday.
$$
INZ018-025>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-111945- Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Defiance-Henry- Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
A wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, rain and sleet expected late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Some snow and ice accumulation is expected. Travel may be impacted, particularly during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
Source: IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Feb 10, 2:36 PM EST ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
6
« on: Today at 12:49:22 PM »
TERRE HAUTE IN Feb 11 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing439 CDUS43 KIND 112132 CLIHUF
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 432 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
...................................
...THE TERRE HAUTE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 11 2025... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ....................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 38 359 PM 40 -2 49 MINIMUM 31 414 AM 23 8 30 AVERAGE 35 32 3 40
PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 0.07 -0.07 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.22 0.73 -0.51 0.10 SINCE DEC 1 4.57 5.82 -1.25 6.94 SINCE JAN 1 0.95 3.33 -2.38 4.97
.......................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (30) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 20 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (40) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 8.8
SKY COVER AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 69 100 AM LOWEST 52 400 PM
..........................................................
THE TERRE HAUTE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 41 MM MM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 23 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET FEBRUARY 11 2025......SUNRISE 746 AM EST SUNSET 622 PM EST FEBRUARY 12 2025......SUNRISE 744 AM EST SUNSET 623 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: TERRE HAUTE IN Feb 11 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
7
« on: Today at 12:49:22 PM »
PAH continues Flood Warning for Green River at Paradise [KY] until further notice396 WGUS83 KPAH 121559 FLSPAH
Flood Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 959 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...
Green River at Paradise.
.Recent rainfall continues to cause rises on the Green River. The river at Paradise will crest just over 4 feet above flood stage Friday evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
&&
KYC177-131800- /O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /PRDK2.2.ER.250131T2246Z.250204T0030Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 959 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Green River at Paradise.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:15 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 381.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 384.3 feet Friday evening. - Flood stage is 380.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697 3729 8707 3731 8719
$$
PAH
Source: PAH continues Flood Warning for Green River at Paradise [KY] until further notice--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
« on: Today at 12:49:21 PM »
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:52 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...118 FXUS63 KLMK 130552 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1252 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread rainfall Friday night through early Sunday will likely lead to area river flooding. Falling temperatures on Sunday could cause light snow to mix in on Sunday.
* Another system could bring additional snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
&&
.UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
It is quite a gloomy and damp night, thanks to the sfc low passing through the area. This sfc low is directly over north-central Kentucky this evening, evident by sfc obs showing the wind shift approaching I-65, and KLVX radar picking up the trailing frontal boundary across central Kentucky. SDF is actually reporting a calm wind right now, which is not something you see often there.
Expect these dreary conditions to continue tonight as the low gradually departs. Drizzle, fog/mist, and low clouds will continue, though as the moisture transport shifts eastward with the front, so will the worst conditions. Cold NW flow is already filtering in to our west, and it is quite notable on the Kentucky Mesonet. 1000-850 fgen band along the front will help support continued light precip for the overnight period. However, it is expected that most precip should be exiting as the colder air finally arrives. There could still be a brief overlap to cause some freezing drizzle tonight, but fortunately the moisture availability will be limited enough to not raise concerns about impacts. As for precip ending time, areas west of I-65 should be free of any precip chances by 06z, but it will be after 09z by the time the folks in the Bluegrass or I-75 corridor finally get drier conditions.
The forecast remains in good shape for tonight, so no major changes are planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
Low pressure crossing central Kentucky from south to north this evening will be accompanied by widespread showers. Fortunately amounts will be light, in the 0.10-0.30" range. A few rumbles of elevated evening thunder can't be entirely ruled out in the Lake Cumberland region with some meager instability showing up on sounding progs.
As the low pulls off to the eastern Great Lakes by morning, precipitation will come to an end though the low overcast will persist. Temperatures will drop below freezing in southern Indiana and about the northwest half of central Kentucky, but at this time it looks like the precipitation should end before that happens...though it will be close.
Areas of fog can be expected as well, with the most widespread fog likely during the evening hours. After midnight WNW surface winds behind the departing low pressure center will increase to around 10 to 15 mph, reducing fog chances.
Tomorrow the center of a strong dome of high pressure will cross from Kansas to Missouri. The surface pressure gradient ahead of this high will be fairly tight and will support wind gusts of 20-25 mph. Low clouds trapped under a strong low level inversion will continue to blanket our skies for the bulk of the day, though WNW 925-850mb flow and the approach of the high may introduce enough drier air to let us have a few peeks of sunshine just as the day comes to a close. Highs will be in the 30s.
For those with concerns regarding the flooding expected this weekend, tomorrow and Friday will be the last days to bring preparations to completion. (See below)
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
On Thursday night, a mildly amplified upper trough over the Ohio Valley will guide a large surface high through the CWA. This will keep winds light under clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall into the teens to low 20s. Clear skies remain into the first half of the day on Friday, but sunny skies will only allow temperatures to reach into the upper 30s across southern Indiana to the upper 40s in southern Kentucky along the Tennessee border.
Friday night, an upper trough surging southward through the Southwest will drive a surface low east from eastern Colorado. The low will strengthen and expand as it moves east towards the Ozarks. This will force winds over the CWA to veer towards the south late in the night, increasing warm air advection and moisture into the area associated with a warm front ahead of the low. A 50+ knot low level jet will concurrently move into the area. Precipitable water values are expected to climb to around 1-1.25" with a few pockets of higher values possible.
Model soundings show deep layer saturation with no real instability, so we aren't looking at storms or the really high rainfall rates they bring. The stratiform rain isn't expected to cause any flash flooding, but depending on amounts and location, river flooding is a concern. Most current models have the axis of highest rainfall totals falling across south central Kentucky through the Lake Cumberland area towards the Bluegrass region before on to eastern Kentucky, but the Euro and GFS have trended slightly towards the north with this axis of highest totals. The GFS still holds on to the highest totals being across south central and eastern Kentucky while the Euro places the axis of highest totals closer to the Ohio River. It's worth noting overall totals are lower with the Euro, and now that the NAM has picked up on part of the event, it also places the highest totals closer to the Ohio River. For now, believe most in central Kentucky will see between 3-4 inches of rainfall between late Friday night and Sunday evening. A few isolated areas could see 5+ inches. Those north of the Ohio River in southern Indiana are expected to see a little less, between 2-3 inches.
Saturday night, a cold front associated with the system will push through the region. This will veer winds towards the northwest, increasing cold air advection. This could cause some snow to mix in with the rain on any remaining precipitation, but a delay in these cooler temperatures would keep all the precipitation as rain before ending.
High surface pressure behind the front will usher in cooler temperatures with highs in the 30s to low 40s and nightly lows in the teens to 20s through midweek. As the next expected system arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday, another round of light snow appears likely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Most terminal locations continue to show IFR flight categories and likely will through the overnight into the early morning. Sfc low has lifted into Ohio dragging a sfc cold front through central KY. Lingering areas of lgt rain/drizzle will bring VIS down at times as well as keep low IFR CIGS around. Sfc high pressure over the Northern Plains will build in from the west bringing drier air into the area. Low clouds will linger as we go into the morning so IFR to MVFR flight categories will be around during the morning and into the early afternoon as clouds slowly mix and thin out over the region. VFR conditions will return by late afternoon into the end of the period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...BTN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:52 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
10
« on: Today at 12:49:19 PM »
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 12, 3:45 AM EST911 FXUS61 KILN 120845 AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 345 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Wintry mix Wednesday morning will eventually transition to rainfall during the day. However, freezing rain is possible for some of our northwestern counties today and tonight as they will remain on the cooler side of the surface low. Low pressure exits early Thursday morning, resulting in drier conditions through the end of the work week. Another low pressure system will usher in mostly rain on Saturday, followed by a transition to snow Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 11AM this morning. 850mb convergence axis has aligned itself right through the ILN fa early this morning, resulting in a prolonged period of snowfall. Radar continues to display snow showers redeveloping from the southwest as ample moisture clashes with the low level convergence axis. Additionally, this moisture currently remains in the DGZ for most of our counties, so we could see additional snow accumulations up to an inch in spots. However, warmer air will begin to intrude the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere over the next couple of hours, pushing the lift/moisture out of the DGZ. This loss of ice nucleation will lead to patchy freezing rain/drizzle through the mid-morning hours where precip lingers, primarily for portions of southern OH/northern KY. While roads will most likely be treated, be aware that some icy spots could develop, especially on elevated surfaces.
Coverage in pcpn will be at a minimum around the late morning/early afternoon hours today. By the mid to late afternoon, coverage in precip will really begin to increase from the south as a strong low pressure system begins its northern track from the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will remain in the 30s to lower 40s across our CWA during the daytime hours, increasing further tonight. However, our far northwestern counties may remain at or just below the freezing mark, resulting in some freezing rain accumulations. Most of the freezing rain will likely be on elevated surfaces, but a few icy spots may develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Low pressure center will continue to shift northward tonight and track right through our fa. As the center of the low continues to approach us, WAA will result in non-diurnal temps tonight. The warmest temperatures will actually occur after midnight, increasing into the middle to upper 40s in portions of central OH down into north-central KY. Temperatures in our far northwestern counties on the other hand will remain fairly unchanged, hovering right around the freezing mark. Mercer County still has the best chance for the highest ice amounts, near 0.10". The gradient in ice accumulation quickly decreases through the next tier of counties to the south and east, but will have to monitor temperature trends for potential changes in overall ice amounts.
Precipitation will gradually get shunted eastward tonight, beginning shortly after midnight around the Tristate and areas north. Surface temperatures will finally begin to decrease early Thursday morning behind the cold front, with dry conditions returning by daybreak. Surface high pressure will nudge in from the west, eroding some of the clouds by the afternoon hours. The warmest temperatures on Thursday will be during the early morning hours, especially for locations SE of I-71 as CAA ensues.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Thursday night and then slide off to the east through the day on Friday. With winds becoming light and clearing skies, temperatures Thursday night will be seasonably cold with lows in the 10 to 15 degree range. In developing return flow through the day on Friday, temperatures will begin to rebound somewhat with daytime highs in the 30s.
A mid and upper level trough will pivot east across the central to eastern CONUS through the weekend. In developing southwest flow ahead of this, some isentropically induced pcpn will develop/spread into our area Friday night with widespread pcpn then continuing through the day Saturday and into Saturday night as a developing surface low lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. Thermal profiles across our north will initially support snow and/or a rain snow mix Friday night before we warm enough through the day on Saturday to transition over to mainly all rain. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 30s far north to the lower 50s in our far south.
With a strengthening 50-60 knot 850 mb jet nosing up into the mid Ohio Valley, good moisture advection will occur through the day on Saturday and into Saturday night with PWs pushing well over an inch across much of our area. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means giving probabilities in excess of 50 to 60 percent of greater than 2 inches of rainfall into our southeast Saturday into Saturday night. This would be enough to lead to flooding concerns, especially for areas along and southeast of the I-71 corridor.
As the low lifts off to our northeast, some cooler air will be pulled in behind it later Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. This will allow for the rain to mix with and then change over to snow from the northwest before ending through the day on Sunday. Some light snow accumulations will be possible, especially across northern portions of our area. In good CAA, temperatures will fall off through the day on Sunday with afternoon readings ranging from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s in our southeast.
An unseasonably cold surface high pressure system will build southeast into the region Monday into Tuesday This will lead to mainly dry conditions. Daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday will only range from the upper teens in the far north to around 30 degrees across our south.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong convergence has led to a longer period of snowfall across the region. Expect periods of light to moderate snowfall to continue, especially across ILN and KCVG/KLUK. There is a sharp gradient between VFR/IFR CIGs, which is currently aligned just SE of KILN. As we progress into the early morning hours, this gradient will shift northwards. A later onset of IFR CIGs is expected for our northern terminals, but confidence is high in this occurrence on Wednesday.
Patchy -FZRA/FZDZ is possible tonight, mainly across KCVG/KLUK and perhaps KILN. This would mainly be after 09z and continue through the mid-morning hours before surface temperatures rise above freezing.
Probabilities are high in IFR CIGs developing, but there is a pretty strong signal for LIFR to develop later in the day as well. This is in response to a surface low that will track right through the Ohio Valley. In addition to the lowering CIGs, periods of rainfall can be expected Wednesday afternoon/evening, becoming more scattered overnight. Vsbys will likely reduce to MVFR, with IFR possible based on latest guidance.
Surface winds will gradually shift towards the southeast today, remaining around 10 kts. Eventually, a cold front will move through Wednesday night and result in a shift to the northwest (highlighted in extended KCVG taf).
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through Thursday, and again from Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>044. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Clark
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 12, 3:45 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
11
« on: Today at 12:49:19 PM »
Angered by Trump's threats, Canadians cancel U.S. trips Donald Trump's repeated chirps about Canada becoming a 51st state and threats to impose sweeping tariffs have riled America’s normally mild-mannered northern neighbours. Source: Angered by Trump's threats, Canadians cancel U.S. trips----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
12
« on: Today at 12:49:18 PM »
BOX issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Feb 9, 2:04 PM EST ...SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 18Z FEB 9...[html] 952 NOUS41 KBOX 091904 PNSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-100704-
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 204 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
...SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 18Z FEB 9...
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...Connecticut...
...Hartford County... 1 SSW Manchester 5.0 in 0740 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Burlington 4.5 in 1025 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 WSW Burlington 4.5 in 1029 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter North Granby 1.3 ENE 4.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NW Glastonbury 4.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Southington 1.7 WNW 3.8 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SSE Marlborough 3.8 in 1053 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Bristol 2.7 WNW 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Salmon Brook 4.9 WSW 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 SSW West Hartford 3.5 in 0635 AM 02/09 Public 3 ENE Farmington 3.5 in 0649 AM 02/09 Public East Berlin 0.3 NW 3.3 in 0530 AM 02/09 COCORAHS West Hartford 0.5 ESE 3.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 E Berlin 3.3 in 0753 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Suffield Depot 6.0 WNW 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Newington 1.9 SSW 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NNE Farmington 3.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 WNW East Hartford 3.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Windsor 3.0 in 0740 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Suffield Depot 3.3 NNE 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS North Canton 0.8 SSW 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Kensington 0.4 N 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Bloomfield 1.5 NW 2.9 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Bradley AP 2.6 in 0100 PM 02/09 ASOS
...Tolland County... 3 SSE Tolland 5.5 in 1100 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 E Vernon 4.2 in 1221 PM 02/09 Public 1 W Tolland 4.0 in 0756 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Central Somers 0.3 N 3.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SW Coventry 3.3 in 0500 AM 02/09 Public Vernon 3.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Staffordville 3.0 in 0500 AM 02/09 COOP Ellington 2.5 in 0655 AM 02/09 Public
...Windham County... 1 SW Killingly 5.0 in 0827 AM 02/09 Public 3 SE Wauregan 4.0 in 0855 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Pomfret 3.5 in 0802 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 W Eastford 2.8 in 0755 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Woodstock 2.8 in 0515 AM 02/09 Public
...Massachusetts...
...Barnstable County... Bourne 6.5 in 0512 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter East Falmouth 0.7 NW 5.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Hyannis 0.7 WNW 4.6 in 0530 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Barnstable 3.6 W 4.6 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Chatham 1.6 WNW 4.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Bourne 6.2 S 4.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Waquoit 0.6 SSW 4.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Yarmouth 2.0 S 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Falmouth 5.4 NNE 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NE Falmouth 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 2 NE East Falmouth 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Centerville 4.5 in 0915 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter East Sandwich 4.3 in 0800 AM 02/09 COOP South Dennis 1.0 NW 4.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Dennis 4.3 in 0745 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 SE Hyannis AP 4.0 in 1200 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio Orleans 3.0 S 4.0 in 0630 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Osterville 1.6 NNW 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Mashpee 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Harwich 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Marstons Mills 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 4 NNW Falmouth 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNE Mashpee 4.0 in 0630 AM 02/09 Public 1 ESE East Dennis 4.0 in 0903 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Truro 0.8 E 3.8 in 0710 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Pocasset 3.8 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNW East Falmouth 3.8 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNE Brewster 3.7 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Sandwich 0.9 NNE 3.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Bristol County... Fairhaven 2.2 ESE 5.0 in 0830 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 NNE Bliss Corner 5.0 in 0545 AM 02/09 Public Acushnet 4.8 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Westport 6.6 SSE 4.6 in 0715 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Somerset 2.3 NNE 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 ESE New Bedford 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Dighton 1.1 WSW 4.1 in 0630 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 ESE Somerset 4.0 in 0640 AM 02/09 NWS Employee 1 ENE Berkley 3.8 in 1002 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter NWS Boston/Norton 3.6 in 1050 AM 02/09 COOP 2 SSW Freetown 3.5 in 0850 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Dighton 3.3 in 1120 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Attleboro 0.9 ENE 3.3 in 0810 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SW North Attleborough 3.3 in 1133 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 NNW Norton 3.3 in 1222 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Norton West 3.1 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Dartmouth 2.5 SSW 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Dukes County... Vineyard Haven 0.8 WSW 5.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Chilmark 5.0 in 0706 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter West Tisbury 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public
...Essex County... Beverly Coop 8.5 in 0830 AM 02/09 COOP 1 NNW Manchester 7.8 in 1051 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 N Methuen 7.5 in 1120 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Newburyport 7.2 in 0915 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Danvers 7.0 in 1030 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Rockport 7.0 in 0939 AM 02/09 Broadcast Media Hamilton 0.7 WSW 7.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 W Haverhill 7.0 in 0930 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Ipswich 7.0 in 0112 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Topsfield 6.8 in 0955 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Haverhill 0.7 N 6.6 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Groveland 1.2 NE 6.6 in 0846 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Amesbury 2.6 WSW 6.5 in 0815 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Saugus 6.5 in 1150 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 SE Lynn 6.3 in 1115 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 WNW Salem 6.0 in 0750 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SSE Haverhill 6.0 in 0955 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Middleton 6.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Andover 0.6 E 6.0 in 0530 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Andover 6.0 in 0625 AM 02/09 Public 1 E Boxford 5.4 in 1015 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 SSW North Andover 5.0 in 0650 AM 02/09 Public
...Franklin County... 1 NW Turners Falls 5.2 in 1055 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Colrain 3.7 WNW 5.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Orange 5.0 in 0922 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Conway 2.9 NW 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 NNW Greenfield 4.5 in 0755 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 3 E Buckland 4.2 in 0945 AM 02/09 CO-OP Observer Buckland 1.8 ESE 4.1 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Conway 1.2 E 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Ashfield 1.4 NE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 SSW Ashfield 4.0 in 1041 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter New Salem 3.1 S 3.3 in 0900 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Greenfield 3.0 in 0530 AM 02/09 COOP Shutesbury 2.9 SW 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Sunderland 2.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP
...Hampden County... 1 SW Chicopee 6.0 in 1143 AM 02/09 Public Agawam 4.5 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 SW Chicopee 4.5 in 0909 AM 02/09 Public 3 WSW Springfield 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SSE Westfield 3.5 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Southwick 3.5 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SE Ludlow 3.5 in 0915 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Feeding Hills 1.2 N 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 SSW West Springfield 3.5 in 0900 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Chester 3.0 in 0830 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Hampden 2.0 NW 2.8 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 S East Longmeadow 2.4 in 0735 AM 02/09 Public
...Hampshire County... Belchertown 5.0 in 0835 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Westhampton 1.8 SW 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Easthampton 1.0 E 3.5 in 0850 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Northampton 0.6 ESE 3.1 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Southampton 3.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio South Hadley 3.2 SSW 3.0 in 0831 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Williamsburg 1.2 WSW 2.7 in 0625 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Amherst 2.6 in 0715 AM 02/09 COOP
...Middlesex County... 1 N Burlington 7.0 in 0921 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 ENE Lowell 7.0 in 1045 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 3 ESE Tyngsboro 6.8 in 1205 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Pepperell 6.5 in 0911 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 SW Tewksbury 6.5 in 0913 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 NW North Reading 6.5 in 1144 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 WNW Ashby 6.3 in 0930 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 ENE Wakefield 6.3 in 0800 AM 02/09 Public 2 SSW Reading 6.3 in 0942 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Dracut 6.3 in 0145 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Westford 6.2 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 3 NNW Chelmsford 6.2 in 0925 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 W Winchester 6.2 in 0911 AM 02/09 Public 1 S Reading 6.2 in 0100 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 SE Littleton 6.1 in 0930 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Stow 6.0 in 0100 PM 02/09 Broadcast Media 1 WNW Bedford 6.0 in 1000 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNE Wakefield 6.0 in 1027 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 3 NW Townsend 5.8 in 0959 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 W Townsend 5.8 in 1000 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Carlisle 5.7 in 1125 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 WNW Carlisle 5.7 in 1100 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 NNW Concord 5.5 in 1000 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 W Littleton 5.5 in 1000 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Wilmington 5.5 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 SSW Reading 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 Public 1 WNW Medford 5.5 in 1037 AM 02/09 Public 1 NW Melrose 5.5 in 0901 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Acton 5.5 in 1030 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Medford 1.2 W 5.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NNW Lexington 5.1 in 0933 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 SW Lexington 5.1 in 1002 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Melrose 5.0 in 0620 AM 02/09 Public 2 NW Billerica 5.0 in 0645 AM 02/09 Public 1 E Framingham 5.0 in 0917 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNE Dracut 5.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 SW Hopkinton 5.0 in 1036 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Newton 4.8 in 0917 AM 02/09 Public 1 SSE Cochituate 4.5 in 1055 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Acton 1.3 SW 4.3 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Maynard 4.3 in 0815 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Natick 4.2 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio Hopkinton 4.0 in 0845 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 WNW Dover 4.0 in 0957 AM 02/09 Broadcast Media Watertown 4.0 in 0810 AM 02/09 Public 2 N Framingham 4.0 in 1050 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 NNW Holliston 3.9 in 0950 AM 02/09 Public Sudbury 3.6 W 3.8 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Hudson 1.4 NW 3.8 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Cambridge 3.5 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 SW Ashland 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Natick 1.9 NNE 3.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Holliston 0.8 S 3.1 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Nantucket County... 1 NNE Nantucket 4.1 in 0542 AM 02/09 Public
...Norfolk County... 1 NNW Norwood 5.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Weymouth 4.3 in 1100 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 ESE Holliston 4.2 in 1013 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 3 SW Milton 4.1 in 0100 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Franklin 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SSE Quincy 4.0 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 ESE Dedham 4.0 in 1024 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 ENE Milton 3.9 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SE Needham 3.8 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 N Sharon 3.8 in 1023 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 3 S Weymouth 3.8 in 1200 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Quincy 1.5 SSE 3.6 in 0900 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SSE Millis 3.6 in 0945 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Bellingham 3.5 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio Westwood 1.5 SSW 3.5 in 0845 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NW Canton 3.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public Sharon 3.5 in 1015 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Millis 3.4 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 ESE Randolph 3.4 in 0126 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Blue Hill Coop 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Milton 1.3 N 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Foxborough 3.1 E 3.2 in 0900 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Wrentham 3.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Walpole 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Norfolk 1.6 WSW 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Bellingham 3.6 SSW 3.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 N Weymouth 3.0 in 0625 AM 02/09 Public 2 NNW Weymouth 3.0 in 0628 AM 02/09 Public Stoughton 3.0 in 0804 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Braintree 1.5 SE 2.7 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Plymouth County... Bridgewater 5.0 in 0630 AM 02/09 COOP Wareham 5.6 NE 4.8 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Lakeville 4.5 in 1028 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Carver 2.3 E 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 COCORAHS West Wareham 0.4 ENE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 SW Hanson 4.0 in 1026 AM 02/09 Public 6 ESE Plymouth 4.0 in 0755 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Middleborough 3.9 in 1120 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 WSW West Bridgewater 3.9 in 0845 AM 02/09 Public Rochester 4.2 NNE 3.7 in 0647 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Marshfield 1.5 NNW 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Middleborough 3.5 SSE 3.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS North Scituate 3.5 in 1036 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Pembroke 2.8 SW 3.3 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 W Duxbury 3.3 in 0820 AM 02/09 NWS Employee Whitman 3.3 in 0849 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Brockton 3.3 in 1010 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Kingston 3.3 WNW 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Hingham 3.0 in 0830 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 W Hanson 3.0 in 0955 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Rochester 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Abington 1.2 NNE 2.9 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 NNE West Bridgewater 2.7 in 0510 AM 02/09 Public
...Suffolk County... 1 NE Chelsea 5.7 in 1130 AM 02/09 Public Logan AP 5.5 in 1030 AM 02/09 ASOS 1 SSW Brighton 5.5 in 1016 AM 02/09 Public 1 NNE Dorchester 5.5 in 1020 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 NE Beacon Hill 5.4 in 1015 AM 02/09 Public Chelsea 5.1 in 1026 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Allston 4.7 in 1220 PM 02/09 Amateur Radio Boston 3.1 SW 4.2 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS West Roxbury 3.8 in 1055 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Jamacia Plain 3.6 in 0800 AM 02/09 COOP
...Worcester County... 1 ESE Fitchburg 7.5 in 1250 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 4 NW Ashburnham 7.0 in 0825 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 NE Lunenburg 7.0 in 1006 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 SE Fitchburg AP 6.8 in 0840 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Baldwinville 6.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 SW Westborough 5.4 in 0953 AM 02/09 NWS Employee 1 SE Hubbardston 5.3 in 0920 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 3 ENE Charlton 5.2 in 0949 AM 02/09 Public 1 WNW Sterling 5.0 in 0950 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Spencer 1.7 W 4.7 in 0900 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Brookfield 4.5 in 0915 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 NNW East Douglas 4.5 in 1204 PM 02/09 CO-OP Observer 2 SSW Shrewsbury 4.5 in 0938 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 SE Paxton 4.5 in 1125 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Worcester AP 4.4 in 1055 AM 02/09 ASOS 1 ESE Boylston 4.4 in 1257 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 W Holden 4.3 in 1040 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Grafton 4.3 in 0558 AM 02/09 Public 1 SSW Sturbridge 4.3 in 1220 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 NNW Grafton 4.2 in 1055 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Milford 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Worcester 1.6 SE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Auburn 2.6 SW 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 E Fiskdale 4.0 in 1049 AM 02/09 Public 1 WSW Auburn 4.0 in 1106 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Petersham 4.0 in 1212 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter Shrewsbury 0.4 S 3.8 in 0840 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Mendon 3.7 in 0525 AM 02/09 Public Upton 3.5 in 0740 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 S Southbridge 3.5 in 0915 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Holden 0.9 SSE 3.5 in 0725 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 NNE Worcester 3.5 in 0530 AM 02/09 Public 2 SE Leominster 3.5 in 0639 AM 02/09 Public Oxford 3.5 in 1120 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Warren 2.4 WSW 3.4 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS West Brookfield 3.1 NNE 3.4 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Douglas 1.9 NNE 3.4 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Hardwick 3.2 in 0800 AM 02/09 COOP Northbridge 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COOP Barre 1.4 NNE 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Rhode Island...
...Bristol County... 1 NW Warren 4.6 in 0720 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 ENE Barrington 3.8 in 0925 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 E Bristol 3.6 in 0547 AM 02/09 Public Bristol 2.0 NNW 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Kent County... 2 NNW West Warwick 5.1 in 1212 PM 02/09 Trained Spotter 2 W Warwick 4.8 in 1100 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio TF Green AP 4.6 in 0100 PM 02/09 ASOS Coventry 2.5 NW 4.5 in 0720 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 6 NW West Greenwich 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio East Greenwich 2.3 ESE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS West Warwick 1.8 WNW 4.0 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Warwick 1.4 NE 3.9 in 0715 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Newport County... 1 NE Newport 4.5 in 0730 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Jamestown 0.3 SSE 4.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Little Compton 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Portsmouth 4.1 in 0110 PM 02/09 NWS Employee 1 SSW Newport AP 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Portsmouth 1.3 S 4.0 in 0600 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Middletown 1.1 SW 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Tiverton 4.4 SSE 4.0 in 0710 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Providence County... Glocester 5.8 in 1140 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 W North Providence 4.5 in 1100 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 S East Providence 4.5 in 1100 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Providence 4.5 in 0600 AM 02/09 Public 2 ENE Cranston 4.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 Public Slatersville 4.0 in 0800 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 1 NW Pawtucket 4.0 in 1100 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Cranston 4.2 ENE 4.0 in 0807 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SSE North Providence 4.0 in 0745 AM 02/09 Public Harrisville 4.0 in 1034 AM 02/09 Public North Providence 4.0 in 1100 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Smithfield 3.8 in 0900 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio 2 N East Providence 3.8 in 1013 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Greenville 2.6 WSW 3.7 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 3 WSW Smithfield 3.7 in 1001 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter Providence 2.7 NNE 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Pawtucket 2.6 SSE 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Cumberland 3.5 in 0932 AM 02/09 NWS Employee 1 SSE Cumberland 3.5 in 0620 AM 02/09 Public 1 E Pawtucket 3.2 in 1100 AM 02/09 Public Smithfield 3.1 in 0700 AM 02/09 Trained Spotter North Smithfield 3.0 in 1100 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Riverside 0.8 SE 3.0 in 0744 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 2 NNW Cumberland 3.0 in 1009 AM 02/09 NWS Employee North Smithfield 0.6 S 2.9 in 0600 AM 02/09 COCORAHS East Providence 2.6 N 2.8 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS
...Washington County... Wakefield-Peacedale 3.1 NE 5.6 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Charlestown 3.0 WSW 5.0 in 0730 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 SSE North Kingstown 5.0 in 0900 AM 02/09 Public 1 E South Kingstown 4.8 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Westerly 0.8 WNW 4.6 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS North Kingstown 2.7 WSW 4.6 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS 1 W Richmond 4.5 in 0830 AM 02/09 Amateur Radio Richmond 2.4 SSE 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Kingston 7.5 NNE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Westerly 3.5 S 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/09 COCORAHS Hope Valley 1.1 NW 4.0 in 0800 AM 02/09 COCORAHS &&
**METADATA** :2/09/2025,0100 PM, CT, Hartford, Bradley AP, , , 41.94, -72.68, SNOW, 2.6, Inch, ASOS, Storm total snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Bloomfield 1.5 NW, , , 41.8483, -72.7559, SNOW_24, 2.9, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0730 AM, CT, Hartford, 1 NNE Farmington, , , 41.7265, -72.8251, SNOW_24, 3.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0730 AM, CT, Hartford, 2 WNW East Hartford, , , 41.7693, -72.6438, SNOW_24, 3.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0740 AM, CT, Hartford, Windsor, , , 41.8528, -72.6438, SNOW_24, 3.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Suffield Depot 3.3 NNE, , , 42.0274, -72.6315, SNOW_24, 3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, North Canton 0.8 SSW, , , 41.8851, -72.8973, SNOW_24, 3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Kensington 0.4 N, , , 41.634, -72.7703, SNOW_24, 3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Suffield Depot 6.0 WNW, , , 42.0263, -72.7508, SNOW_24, 3.2, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Newington 1.9 SSW, , , 41.6602, -72.7409, SNOW_24, 3.2, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0530 AM, CT, Hartford, East Berlin 0.3 NW, , , 41.6205, -72.7192, SNOW_24, 3.3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, West Hartford 0.5 ESE, , , 41.766, -72.7454, SNOW_24, 3.3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0753 AM, CT, Hartford, 2 E Berlin, , , 41.6204, -72.7193, SNOW_24, 3.3, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Bristol 2.7 WNW, , , 41.7014, -72.9853, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, Salmon Brook 4.9 WSW, , , 41.9387, -72.8889, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0635 AM, CT, Hartford, 3 SSW West Hartford, , , 41.7318, -72.7762, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0649 AM, CT, Hartford, 3 ENE Farmington, , , 41.7284, -72.7811, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0800 AM, CT, Hartford, Southington 1.7 WNW, , , 41.6061, -72.9089, SNOW_24, 3.8, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1053 AM, CT, Hartford, 1 SSE Marlborough, , , 41.6183, -72.4412, SNOW_24, 3.8, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0730 AM, CT, Hartford, 1 NW Glastonbury, , , 41.7075, -72.6082, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, CT, Hartford, North Granby 1.3 ENE, , , 42.0244, -72.8207, SNOW_24, 4.3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1025 AM, CT, Hartford, Burlington, , , 41.7698, -72.9621, SNOW_24, 4.5, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1029 AM, CT, Hartford, 2 WSW Burlington, , , 41.7547, -72.9955, SNOW_24, 4.5, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0740 AM, CT, Hartford, 1 SSW Manchester, , , 41.7707, -72.5209, SNOW_24, 5.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0655 AM, CT, Tolland, Ellington, , , 41.9042, -72.4704, SNOW_24, 2.5, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0730 AM, CT, Tolland, Vernon, , , 41.8188, -72.479, SNOW_24, 3.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0500 AM, CT, Tolland, Staffordville, , , 41.9984, -72.2606, SNOW_24, 3, Inch, COOP, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0500 AM, CT, Tolland, 1 SW Coventry, , , 41.774, -72.31, SNOW_24, 3.3, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0800 AM, CT, Tolland, Central Somers 0.3 N, , , 41.9955, -72.4413, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0756 AM, CT, Tolland, 1 W Tolland, , , 41.8736, -72.3873, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1221 PM, CT, Tolland, 2 E Vernon, , , 41.8201, -72.4518, SNOW_24, 4.2, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1100 AM, CT, Tolland, 3 SSE Tolland, , , 41.8322, -72.3424, SNOW_24, 5.5, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0755 AM, CT, Windham, 2 W Eastford, , , 41.8986, -72.1251, SNOW_24, 2.8, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0515 AM, CT, Windham, Woodstock, , , 41.9507, -71.9774, SNOW_24, 2.8, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0802 AM, CT, Windham, Pomfret, , , 41.9, -71.96667, SNOW, 3.5, Inch, Trained Spotter, Storm total snowfall, :2/09/2025,0855 AM, CT, Windham, 3 SE Wauregan, , , 41.7129, -71.8812, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0827 AM, CT, Windham, 1 SW Killingly, , , 41.8194, -71.8801, SNOW_24, 5.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0800 AM, MA, Barnstable, Sandwich 0.9 NNE, , , 41.7701, -70.4941, SNOW_24, 3.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, 1 NNE Brewster, , , 41.7639, -70.0761, SNOW_24, 3.7, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0710 AM, MA, Barnstable, Truro 0.8 E, , , 42.0021, -70.0506, SNOW_24, 3.8, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, Pocasset, , , 41.6863, -70.6153, SNOW_24, 3.8, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, 1 NNW East Falmouth, , , 41.5785, -70.5589, SNOW_24, 3.8, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,1200 PM, MA, Barnstable, 2 SE Hyannis AP, , , 41.6509, -70.2439, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Amateur Radio, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0630 AM, MA, Barnstable, Orleans 3.0 S, , , 41.7487, -69.9908, SNOW_24, 4, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, MA, Barnstable, Osterville 1.6 NNW, , , 41.6501, -70.394, SNOW_24, 4, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, Mashpee, , , 41.649, -70.4812, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, Harwich, , , 41.6863, -70.0728, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, Marstons Mills, , , 41.6496, -70.4176, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0600 AM, MA, Barnstable, 4 NNW Falmouth, , , 41.5944, -70.6302, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0630 AM, MA, Barnstable, 1 NNE Mashpee, , , 41.6611, -70.4745, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Public, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0903 AM, MA, Barnstable, 1 ESE East Dennis, , , 41.7337, -70.1455, SNOW_24, 4.0, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0800 AM, MA, Barnstable, East Sandwich, , , 41.7145, -70.4718, SNOW_24, 4.3, Inch, COOP, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, MA, Barnstable, South Dennis 1.0 NW, , , 41.7135, -70.1647, SNOW_24, 4.3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0745 AM, MA, Barnstable, Dennis, , , 41.7199, -70.2026, SNOW_24, 4.3, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, MA, Barnstable, Chatham 1.6 WNW, , , 41.681, -69.9921, SNOW_24, 4.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, MA, Barnstable, Bourne 6.2 S, , , 41.6437, -70.6089, SNOW_24, 4.5, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour snowfall, :2/09/2025,0700 AM, M
13
« on: Today at 11:02:11 AM »
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 3:40 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...438 FXUS64 KLIX 102140 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 340 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
A series of embedded shortwave features embedded within a zonal mean flow pattern in the mid and upper levels will be the main driver of the forecast through the short term period. The first of these shortwave troughs will slide to the north of the area tomorrow. As this system approaches tonight, winds will veer to the south as a low pressure system begins to form the Arklatex region and weak warm frontogenesis takes hold. The main result from this wind shift will be an increase in dewpoints and temperatures as we move into tomorrow with highs quickly recovering back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. There may be a period of fog in the lakes and sounds later tonight, but confidence is too low at this time to issue a dense fog advisory for areas adjacent to these bodies of water. A weak front will also stall just north of the area tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, and this will serve as a focus for periods of showers and thunderstorms to impact the northern third of the CWA. Fortunately, the heavy rain threat is very limited tomorrow as the main axis of heavier rain remains more along the I-20 corridor.
Wednesday will be the most active day of the short term period as a vigorous shortwave trough ejects out of Texas and across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This stronger feature will produce a potent low pressure system over north Texas, and this low will quickly race to the northeast into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday night. As this occurs, it will drag a cold front across the forecast area Wednesday evening. Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of the front and some gusts could approach 35 mph at times. This strong southerly flow off the Gulf will also allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s after starting off in the 60s.
As the front moves into the area, a line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and a few of the storms could be strong to potentially severe during the late afternoon and early evening hours. A review of model sounding data indicates that a strong low level jet will be in place ahead of the front and that 0-6km speed shear will exceed 50 to 60 knots. Directional shear will also approach 200 to 300 m2/s2 in this 6 to 9 hour window from late afternoon into the evening hours. Although shear and forcing will be in place, the one limiting condition will be the amount of instability. MLCAPE values should peak near 1000 J/KG in the late afternoon hours as mid-level lapse rates remain weak, and this could limit both updraft strength and duration as storms quickly turn cold pool dominated and collapse. Given this, any severe storm activity should be on the isolated side Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday night, any storm threat will be shifted well offshore as the front moves into the Gulf waters.
&&
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Another fast moving and shallower shortwave trough will slide north of the area on Thursday, and this will help to reinforce the cooler and more stable airmass in place through Friday. However, the cold pool will remain fairly shallow and some overrunning moisture into the area will keep cloud cover in place through the period. Some overrunning shower activity could also develop, especially for more coastal locations as the lingering stalled out front slowly dissipates over the offshore waters. Overall, a cool and breezy stretch of weather is expected for Thursday and Friday with highs closer to average in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
The next date of concern will be Saturday into Saturday night as a very strong and deep trough drives through the region. As the trough approaches, winds will turn southerly and quickly advect in a much warmer and more unstable airmass by Saturday afternoon. Highs will easily climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, and may even climb into the mid 80s in a few locations. Additionally, the more southerly track of the approaching trough will help lead to greater mid-level cooling and higher lapse rates. This will allow for more instability as noted by MLCAPE of around 1500 J/KG Saturday afternoon and evening. This increased instability will allow for deeper and more sustained updrafts to develop, and this will result in stronger thunderstorm activity along a strong cold front as it moves into the area Saturday afternoon and evening. The other factor to keep in mind is that shear parameters will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, especially for areas north of the I-10 corridor. Speed shear will climb to around 50 knots in the lowest 6km, and directional shear will peak out between 200 and 300 m2/s2. The combination of favorable shear, lift, and instability should all combine to produce a more significant severe weather episode Saturday evening with multiple severe storms developing in the area. All convective threats will also be possible given the shear parameters expected to be in place. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide additional updates as things progress through the week.
All of the guidance is in good agreement that the trough axis and attendant front will be clear of the area by Sunday afternoon. Strong subsidence and dry air advection behind the front will lead to clearing skies by Sunday afternoon and mostly clear conditions are expected by Sunday night. Cold air advection will also take place as a 925mb thermal trough axis slides into the region, and this will help push temperatures below average. Highs will only warm into the 50s and lower 60s on Saturday and lows will cool into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
A prevailing broken deck ranging between 1500 and 2500 feet will remain in place through the evening hours. After 06z, the stratus deck will begin to build down at all of the terminals, and the forecast calls for prevailing IFR conditions by daybreak at every terminal. GPT, NEW, HUM, MSY, and ASD will see the longest duration of IFR impacts as winds shift back to the east-southeast. This weak onshore flow will allow any fog offshore to slowly drift onshore and reduce visibilities down to less than a mile at times. The low stratus and fog will be slow to clear tomorrow morning with most locations still in IFR conditions through the end of the forecast period. At MSY, conditions should mix out into VFR after 18z tomorrow. PG
&&
.MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
As southerly winds redevelop tonight, some moisture advection into the area could support fog development late tonight over the sounds and lakes. However, confidence in this occurring is low enough that a dense fog advisory has not been issued. The situation will continue to be monitored and a dense fog advisory may be issued later this evening or overnight. Outside of the fog threat tonight, winds will begin to increase tomorrow and further increase into small craft advisory range on Wednesday. These stronger winds are associated with a low pressure system passing to the north of the waters. In the wake of the low, another front will sweep into the waters and advisory level winds will shift to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, the development of another low over Texas and the shifting of the high to the east will quickly switch winds around to the south. These stronger winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue as a cold front moves into the waters Saturday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 56 78 60 79 / 10 60 70 90 BTR 61 80 65 81 / 10 40 50 90 ASD 61 78 64 80 / 10 40 30 80 MSY 63 78 67 80 / 0 40 30 70 GPT 61 73 63 75 / 20 50 30 80 PQL 61 75 64 77 / 30 50 40 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 3:40 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
14
« on: Today at 11:02:11 AM »
MOB cancels Tornado Warning for Clarke [AL]387 WWUS54 KMOB 130052 SVSMOB
Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
ALC025-130101- /O.CAN.KMOB.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-250213T0115Z/ Clarke AL- 652 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for south central and southwestern Alabama.
LAT...LON 3199 8767 3188 8767 3188 8766 3187 8766 3180 8787 3188 8794 3199 8781 TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 234DEG 30KT 3191 8778
$$
MM
Source: MOB cancels Tornado Warning for Clarke [AL]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
15
« on: Today at 11:02:11 AM »
1 NW Newmansville [Forest Co, PA] Public reports Freezing Rain of U0.00 inch at 5:41 PM EST -- Reported via mPING270 NWUS51 KPBZ 122358 LSRPBZ
Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 658 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..
0541 PM Freezing Rain 1 NW Newmansville 41.44N 79.39W 02/12/2025 U0.00 inch Forest PA Public
Reported via mPING
&&
Event Number PBZ2504254
$$
CL
Source: 1 NW Newmansville [Forest Co, PA] Public reports Freezing Rain of U0.00 inch at 5:41 PM EST -- Reported via mPING--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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